Pakistan In Near Future

Pakistan In Near Future
Good Day! Dear readers. First thing first, I’m extremely grateful to each one of you who’ve always appreciated my work and not just read them but also shared it with others and asked questions/follows back on particular blog post, this shows the seriousness, thank you.

Further to my previous blog post [Pessimistic Nation] on ChaiKhanah where I mentioned about the article in Forbes by Mr. Daniel FitzGerald Runde which says “Pakistan’s Economy is back on track” and the article states Pakistan’s growing middleclass, which will expand from an estimated forty million people today to a whopping 100-million by year 2050.

Many of you have asked about the basis of the claim made by Mr. Daniel FitzGerald Runde, so I will try to answer that in this post.

What Mr. Daniel FitzGerald Runde stated in the said article is not something new, nor surprising. The UN, the BIG FOUR [EY, PWC, KPMG, Deloitte], World Bank & many other International organizations have been saying this since 2013 but we, our media are too busy to report this or see the change/progress.

There have been many studies on the next emerging markets, I will try to write the key points only to keep it brief and simple.

Projected Middle Class Spending by OECD/KIPLINGER:

1

Projected Middle Class Spending [$ Trillion]
2010 2030
North America 5.5 5.8
Europe 8 11.3
Asia Pacific 4.8 32.6
Central & South America 1.5 3.2
Africa & Middle East 1.1 2.8

As you can see the huge rise in spending in Asia pacific region compared to other regions.

We all have heard that the distribution of money in our region is only between the riches, the rich is getting richer, poor is getting poorer & the middle class is shrinking, but the facts says otherwise. Let’s have a look at some numbers:

Millionaire ($1m+) % change
2005 2014 2015 2025 2005-2015 2014-2015 2015-2025
North America 3,342,600 4,582,700 4,472,000 5,828,200 34% -2% 30%
Europe 2,762,600 4,021,800 3,925,400 4,958,100 42% -2% 26%
Asia 1,731,300 3,147,300 3,096,300 4,687,100 79% -2% 51%
Middle East 252,100 495,200 479,400 739,300 90% -3% 54%
Australia 163,000 385,800 379,000 517,900 133% -2% 37%
Latin America & Caribbean 336,500 649,500 591,500 841,100 76% -9% 42%
Africa 92,000 170,900 165,100 254,100 79% -3% 54%
Russia and CIS 48,300 152,900 146,500 252,400 203% -4% 72%
TOTAL 8,728,400 13,606,100 13,255,200 18,078,200 52% -3% 36%

2

Multi-millionaire ($10m+) % change
2005 2014 2015 2025 2005-2015 2014-2015 2015-2025
North America 144,920 197,890 193,300 251,780 33% -2% 30%
Europe 87,770 129,940 127,130 160,780 45% -2% 26%
Asia 47,240 108,140 105,060 171,480 122% -3% 63%
Middle East 13,320 25,860 25,130 38,740 89% -3% 54%
Australia 4,720 11,180 10,980 15,000 133% -2% 37%
Latin America & Caribbean 14,940 29,370 26,690 37,710 79% -9% 41%
Africa 4,200 7,800 7,480 11,430 78% -4% 53%
Russia and CIS 4,470 14,030 13,400 23,080 200% -4% 72%
TOTAL 321,580 524,210 509,170 710,000 58% -3% 39%

3

UHNWI ($30m+) % change
2005 2014 2015 2025 2005-2015 2014-2015 2015-2025
North America 51,934 70,934 69,283 90,247 33% -2% 30%
Europe 32,073 47,250 46,191 58,465 44% -2% 27%
Asia 17,531 42,345 41,072 67,999 134% -3% 66%
Middle East 4,712 9,146 8,910 13,763 89% -3% 54%
Australia 1,630 3,864 3,795 5,179 133% -2% 36%
Latin America & Caribbean 5,279 10,455 9,492 13,380 80% -9% 41%
Africa 1,602 2,731 2,620 3,933 64% -4% 50%
Russia and CIS 2,039 6,390 6,105 10,517 199% -4% 72%
TOTAL 116,800 193,115 187,468 263,483 61% -3% 41%

4

Centa-millionaire ($100m+) % change
2005 2014 2015 2025 2005-2015 2014-2015 2015-2025
North America 6,039 8,251 8,058 10,496 33% -2% 30%
Europe 3,779 5,552 5,423 6,866 44% -2% 27%
Asia 2,088 5,225 5,062 8,454 142% -3% 67%
Middle East 556 1,084 1,052 1,623 89% -3% 54%
Australia 185 438 430 587 132% -2% 37%
Latin America & Caribbean 608 1,211 1,098 1,547 81% -9% 41%
Africa 215 369 351 524 63% -5% 49%
Russia and CIS 274 859 820 1,413 199% -5% 72%
TOTAL 13,744 22,989 22,294 31,510 62% -3% 41%

5

Billionaire ($1,000m) % change
2005 2014 2015 2025 2005-2015 2014-2015 2015-2025
North America 483 660 645 840 34% -2% 30%
Europe 316 461 448 569 42% -3% 27%
Asia 182 504 487 832 168% -3% 71%
Middle East 50 92 90 140 80% -2% 56%
Australia 13 32 31 42 138% -3% 35%
Latin America & Caribbean 47 96 86 120 83% -10% 40%
Africa 21 36 35 51 67% -3% 46%
Russia and CIS 33 101 97 166 194% -4% 71%
TOTAL 1,145 1,982 1,919 2,760 68% -3% 44%

6

Pakistan
2005 2014 2015 2025
Millionaire ($1m+) 8,700 19,300 18,300 27,500
Multi-millionaires ($10m+) 490 1,090 1,040 1,560
UHNWIs ($30m+) 177 394 374 561
Centa-millionaires ($100m+) 20 45 43 65
Billionaires ($1,000m+) 1 3 3 5

7

Source: Knight Frank – The Wealth Report, 2015 & 2016.

GDP [PPP] Projections
Country Rank 2014 Rank 2030 Change in Rank since 2014 [+/-] Rank 2050 Change in Rank since 2030 [+/-]
China 1 1 1
United States 2 2 3 -1
India 3 3 2 1
Japan 4 4 7 -3
Germany 5 8 -3 10 -2
Russia 6 7 -1 8 -1
Brazil 7 6 1 5 1
France 8 11 -3 13 -2
Indonesia 9 5 4 4 1
United Kingdom 10 10 11 -1
Mexico 11 9 2 6 3
South Korea 12 15 -3 18 -3
Italy 13 13 17 -4
Saudi Arabia 14 12 2 12
Canada 15 17 -2 19 -2
Spain 16 18 -2 26 -8
Turkey 17 14 3 14
Iran 18 19 -1 25 -6
Australia 19 23 -4 28 -5
Nigeria 20 16 4 9 7
Thailand 21 21 21
Egypt 22 20 2 16 4
Poland 23 25 -2 31 -6
Argentina 24 27 -3 30 -3
Pakistan 25 22 3 15 7
Netherlands 26 32 -6 32
Malaysia 27 24 3 24
Philippines 28 26 2 20 6
South Africa 29 31 -2 27 4
Columbia 30 30 29 1
Bangladesh 31 28 3 22 6
Vietnam 32 29 3 23 6

Source: IMF 2014, 2015

Five emerging markets of future Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Bangladesh & Vietnam. A new world order [economically]! Asia pacific to dominate world economy in near future. At times when economies like Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, and Poland declining on the rank table Pakistan & Nigeria move ahead as many as 10  ranks.

GDP Projections [At Market Exchange Rate – $ Billions] of FIVE EMERGING MARKETS OF FUTURE
2015 2030 2050
Nigeria 594 1756 6354
Pakistan 233 729 2727
Philippines 290 848 2747
Bangladesh 187 639 2450
Vietnam 188 685 2555

8

Population [Millions]
2015 2030 2050
Nigeria 182.2 262.6 398.5
Pakistan 188.9 244.9 309.6
Philippines 100.7 123.6 148.6
Bangladesh 161 186.5 202.2
Vietnam 93.5 105.2 112.8

9

Life Expectancy at Birth
2015 2030 2050
Nigeria 52.3 56.7 62.3
Pakistan 65.9 68.4 71.3
Philippines 68 70 72.7
Bangladesh 71 75.5 78.7
Vietnam 75.6 77.8 80.9

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These are some of the key points from the studies/reports/projections made by internationally recognized organizations. I hope it clears your question, feel free to write if you’ve any queries.

 

Thank you for reading.

13 thoughts on “Pakistan In Near Future

  • March 28, 2016 at 8:27 pm
    Permalink

    Very intricate details and great research and compilation of information, Umair Bhai never disappoints. Explains a lot and answers many questions which Ministry of finance and Ministry of Information should be doing. Loved it.

    Reply
  • March 28, 2016 at 8:29 pm
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    First of all congratulations Malik for writing another amazing blog and thanks for explaining a future market with the help of figure and simple words
    KEEP writing

    Reply
  • March 28, 2016 at 9:24 pm
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    A very informative one on that topic indeed, thanks for sharing

    Reply
  • March 29, 2016 at 4:42 am
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    A genius on flow. Keep it up bhai love to see the charts which is very easy to understand what is going on and what is coming or expected.

    Reply
  • March 29, 2016 at 7:42 pm
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    Its my first time I m reading ur blog u did a great job Appreciate this keep it up

    Reply
  • March 31, 2016 at 12:03 pm
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    Another good effort, indeed. This is called thinking in numbers, an attitude we all need to acquire (as a nation). The time and effort invested is praiseworthy. Don’t know why there is a little formatting glitch above.

    Reply
    • March 31, 2016 at 8:01 pm
      Permalink

      Thank you sir, formatting glitches because of tables. kindly visit thru laptop/PC or wide-tablet.

      Reply
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